New Observations Alleviate Concerns Over Potential Asteroid Collision with Moon
Recent scientific analyses have dispelled previous fears regarding a 100-meter-wide asteroid poised to potentially collide with the Moon.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, was initially dubbed the “most dangerous asteroid” in decades after early assessments suggested a 3.1% likelihood of it striking Earth in 2032. While further studies discounted the possibility of a catastrophic impact on our planet, they did indicate a 4.3% chance that the Moon could be within the asteroid’s trajectory.
Though Earth would remain unharmed, astronomers warned that debris from a lunar collision could disrupt vital navigation and communication satellites. However, newer data reveals that 2024 YR4 will pass the Moon at a distance exceeding 20,000 kilometers (approximately 12,400 miles), effectively nullifying any significant risk.
Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, commented, “While this would have been a fascinating opportunity for scientific inquiry, the minimal risk of debris makes it a scenario we’d prefer to avoid. Some in the scientific community may feel a tinge of disappointment.”
When 2024 YR4 exited Earth’s view, astronomers didn’t anticipate accurately tracking its trajectory until 2028, when the asteroid would become visible again. Nevertheless, an international collaboration of scientists uncovered two five-hour observation windows in February during which the James Webb Space Telescope could detect and monitor the faint object, which is four billion times dimmer than the faintest star observable to the naked eye.
“Current visibility of 2024 YR4 is exceedingly faint—comparable to the light reflected by an almond seen from the distance of the Moon,” remarked Dr. Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University and Prof. Julien de Wit from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who co-led the observation efforts. “The James Webb Space Telescope is uniquely equipped for these measurements due to its unparalleled sensitivity, stability, and ability to track moving targets.”
These observations allowed for a more precise determination of 2024 YR4’s orbit, confirming that it will safely bypass the Moon in 2032.
Advancements in telescope technology, including the capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope and the Vera Rubin Observatory, have improved the tracking of asteroids and other near-Earth objects, according to Snodgrass. “Such alerts may become more frequent, but with our enhanced tracking capabilities, we can swiftly rule out threats.”
In response to the findings, the European Space Agency (ESA) affirmed, “The Moon is safe; 2024 YR4 poses no danger, but our work continues. The Planetary Defence team within ESA’s Space Safety program is dedicated to detecting and tracking near-Earth objects to ensure that we are not caught unprepared should a genuine threat arise.”
Source: Original Source
