Bitcoin’s Recovery Takes Shape Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Divergent Strategies
As Bitcoin shows signs of recovery, the backdrop is anything but stable, characterized by geopolitical uncertainties and contrasting market strategies.
Bhutan Liquidates, Strategy Inc. Accumulates
On one front, Bhutan’s state investment entity, Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), is methodically decreasing its Bitcoin holdings. This year, the firm has allocated approximately $42.5 million into Bitcoin and USDT, including a recent transaction involving 175 BTC valued at nearly $12 million. Currently, DHI maintains a reserve of around 5,400 BTC.
The Bitcoin mined by Bhutan has been sourced through surplus hydropower, resulting in a negligible cost basis. Thus, each sale results in pure profit, executed with a consistent approach that appears detached from current pricing trends—indicative of a strategic reduction rather than a panic sell-off.
In contrast, Strategy Inc. has significantly increased its holdings, acquiring approximately 18,000 BTC for around $1.28 billion from March 2 to March 8. This investment is funded through stock offerings and preferred shares, marking the 102nd acquisition for the firm—its eleventh consecutive purchase. Strategy now controls 738,731 BTC, equating to approximately 3.5% of the global Bitcoin supply.
Technical Signals and ETF Dynamics
These market activities coincide with a concerning technical development: the appearance of a “death cross” on the three-day chart, where the 50-period moving average dips below the 200-period average. Historically, such movements have preceded protracted declines, with the last significant instance noted in 2022.
Simultaneously, capital inflows are witnessing a resurgence in U.S. spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In just five trading days, around $1.4 billion has entered these products, contributing to net inflows of nearly $700 million since the start of the month. However, analysts at Bitfinex caution that these inflows might not directly translate to an immediate demand for Bitcoin. Often, authorized participants engage in short-selling ETF shares before securing the underlying Bitcoin, potentially delaying market-buying pressure.
Institutional Influence and Market Vulnerabilities
Bitcoin’s current valuation is approximately 25% below its 200-day moving average and significantly down from its all-time peak of around $124,000 in October 2025. Despite last week’s resurgence—amounting to an 8% gain on a single day—the market remains overshadowed by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East that are impacting overall investor sentiment.
Interestingly, while gold has experienced a decline of about 2% since Friday, Bitcoin’s value surged by nearly 12% within the same timeframe. Yet, increased correlation with Nasdaq and other risk assets raises Bitcoin’s susceptibility to broader macroeconomic fluctuations. Large wallet holders, or those possessing over 1,000 BTC, have exhibited minimal trading activity, suggesting a wait-and-see approach until clearer market signals emerge.
Rony Szuster, Head of Research at Mercado Bitcoin, warns that the current downturn may persist: should the market adhere to historical trends, the correction phase could extend until late 2026.
Investor Considerations: Buy or Sell?
Investors currently face a critical decision regarding their Bitcoin positions. March 10th’s analysis highlights the urgency for action as markets fluctuate. Should individuals consider entering the market or divesting their holdings? Further insights and strategic recommendations are available in the latest analysis report.
For detailed guidance on navigating the current Bitcoin landscape, please refer to the complete analysis.
Source: Original Source
